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POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATES DISTRICT BOOKLETS
In light of the experiences gained from the devastating earthquakes in Gölcük (M=7.4) and Düzce (M=7.2) in 1999, the importance of revealing the earthquake hazards and risks of megacities that are at risk of devastating earthquakes has become a necessity. In this context, the earthquake hazard and risks of Istanbul, which is expecting a devastating earthquake at any moment, should be revealed using current scientific analysis methods on this subject, data sets such as existing superstructure and infrastructure inventory information, and the use of the results, especially in the integrated disaster management process, in urban planning studies, and in order to prioritize structural improvements and urban transformation against earthquakes, is extremely important for an earthquake-resistant Istanbul.
In this direction, the outputs of the “Istanbul Province Possible Earthquake Loss Estimates Update Project (2019)” were customized by the IMM Earthquake and Ground Investigation Directorate and “District Possible Earthquake Loss Estimate Booklets” were produced for 39 districts of Istanbul by conducting district-specific analyses and mappings.
In this context, district-specific analyses and mappings were conducted in order to produce earthquake hazard and earthquake risk analyses of urban superstructure and infrastructure elements for 39 districts in Istanbul.
The earthquake loss estimate report specific to our 39 districts can be accessed from the links below.
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In this study, within the scope of the “Istanbul Province Possible Earthquake Loss Estimates Update Project (2019)” the earthquake loss estimates obtained for the Mw 7.5 magnitude earthquake scenario were customized for districts, superstructure and infrastructure damages, loss of life and number of injuries, road closure analyses and temporary shelter needs were calculated for each district and the relevant maps were produced.
However, the process of compiling the cell-based risk analysis results performed for the whole city specifically for districts and neighborhoods increases the uncertainty in the estimates of loss of life and number of injuries and number of damaged buildings, especially in small neighborhoods or neighborhoods with few buildings. In addition, the results presented in the district booklets do not include information on the earthquake performance of individual buildings.
The loss estimates presented in the project and booklets are based on analytical studies in the earthquake engineering literature or empirical models created using experience in earthquakes. These models, as in all statistical models, are based on assumptions and include various uncertainties. The results presented are average values obtained from the models used. It is inevitable that the losses that a real earthquake will create will differ from the results presented in this report.
